A public health approach to reducing violence within the CARICOM region.

Widespread crime has become a worldwide problem so much so that violence is now ranked fourth globally in its contribution to disability-adjusted life years in the 10 to 24 age group. Homicides, a surrogate marker of violent crime, have shown an upward trend in almost all of the CARICOM countries, and homicide rates over the past 3 years have consistently increased, though the pattern of violence varies by country. This background has informed the need for greater emphasis on the need for a different approach to dealing with crime in the CARICOM region. The CARICOM governments recently hosted a symposium on crime and violence as a public health issue. The public health approach to crime has been used with measurable success in different parts of the world and, more recently in Trinidad, one of the CARICOM countries. The paper outlines the outcomes of the symposium and discusses its implications for the region.

Patients' Suits Against Psychiatrists for Not Preventing the Patients' Criminal Acts.

Patients who allege negligent treatment by their psychiatrists can sue to be compensated for the harms they experience. But what if the harms result from a criminal act committed by the patient that the patient claims the psychiatrist should have prevented? A long-standing common law rule bars plaintiffs from being compensated for harms caused by their own wrongdoing. The Supreme Court of Pennsylvania recently considered the scope of this rule in the case of a psychiatric patient convicted of murder. Even when the rule is upheld, various exceptions may exist, and there is pressure to do away with an absolute bar on recovery of damages.

Understanding and addressing femicide in Africa: a systematic review of empirical research.

CONTEXT: Against the backdrop of a high prevalence rate of femicide across Africa, it is crucial to gain methodological insights into the existing research on femicide. OBJECTIVE: To develop evidence-based strategies to address the complex and multifaceted nature of femicide in Africa, ultimately contributing to its prevention and reduction. DATA SOURCES: Empirical research was searched for using four electronic research databases (ProQuest, Web of Science, EBSCO and PubMed). ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Full-text empirical articles (ie, observational or retrospective studies) published in English between the period of 1 January 1992 and 30 July 2021, which sampled femicide victims and/or perpetrators in Africa, were included in the review. DATA EXTRACTION: Data were extracted using predefined data fields, including study quality indicators. DATA SYNTHESIS: Thomas and Harden's (2008) thematic synthesis method was used to analyse 22 empirical articles that met the inclusion criteria in this study. RESULTS: This review highlights the significant focus on femicide research in South Africa. Most studies of femicides have used cross-sectional research designs. This review also demonstrates that crime dockets have benefited significantly from forensic contributions and police investigations. Furthermore, research efforts have uncovered various contextual factors that contribute to femicide, such as the high prevalence of early childhood trauma and the loss of primary caregivers among femicide offenders. CONCLUSION: This systematic review offers a thorough synthesis of the current understanding of femicide in an African context, focusing on South Africa. Despite acknowledging the strengths and limitations of the existing knowledge, this review emphasises the urgency of addressing femicide and calls for international attention and action to effectively combat this pressing issue.

State-Level Analysis of Intimate Partner Violence, Abortion Access, and Peripartum Homicide: Call for Screening and Violence Interventions for Pregnant Patients.

BACKGROUND: Despite representing 4% of the global population, the US has the fifth highest number of intentional homicides in the world. Peripartum people represent a unique and vulnerable subset of homicide victims. This study aimed to understand the risk factors for peripartum homicide. STUDY DESIGN: We used data from the 2018 to 2020 National Violent Death Reporting System to compare homicide rates of peripartum and nonperipartum people capable of becoming pregnant (12 to 50 years of age). Peripartum was defined as currently pregnant or within 1-year postpartum. We additionally compared state-level peripartum homicide rates between states categorized as restrictive, neutral, or protective of abortion. Pearson's chi-square and Wilcoxon rank-sum tests were used. RESULTS: There were 496 peripartum compared with 8,644 nonperipartum homicide victims. The peripartum group was younger (27.4 ± 71 vs 33.0 ± 9.6, p < 0.001). Intimate partner violence causing the homicide was more common in the peripartum group (39.9% vs 26.4%, p < 0.001). Firearms were used in 63.4% of homicides among the peripartum group compared with 49.5% in the comparison (p < 0.001). A significant difference was observed in peripartum homicide between states based on policies regarding abortion access (protective 0.37, neutral 0.45, restrictive 0.64; p < 0.01); the same trend was not seen with male homicides. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with nonperipartum peers, peripartum people are at increased risk for homicide due to intimate partner violence, specifically due to firearm violence. Increasing rates of peripartum homicide occur in states with policies that are restrictive to abortion access. There is a dire need for universal screening and interventions for peripartum patients. Research and policies to reduce violence against pregnant people must also consider the important role that abortion access plays in protecting safety.

Investing in family-centered early childhood education: A conceptual model for preventing firearm homicide among Black male youth in the United States.

INTRODUCTION: Firearms are now the number one killer of children and adolescents in the United States. Firearm homicides among Black male youth are the driver of this increase. Prevention requires a multi-faceted life course approach. Academic achievement has been identified as a protective factor. Early childhood education, which is linked to later achievement, is thus an intervention area of interest. Conceptualizing the potential links between early childhood education and reduced risk for youth firearm homicide is important for guiding policy advocacy and informing future research. METHODS: This paper presents a conceptual model linking early childhood education to reduced risk for firearm homicide. Each link in the model is discussed, and a corresponding review of the literature is presented. The need for anti-racist policies to strengthen the impact of early childhood education is highlighted. RESULTS: Early education and firearm homicide research are each well-established but largely disconnected. There are clear immediate benefits of early childhood education; however, these effects wane with time, particularly for youth of color. At the same time, juvenile delinquency-a major risk factor for firearm homicide-is influenced by educational inequities. CONCLUSIONS: Effective interventions to reduce firearm homicides among Black male youth in the United States are needed. Early childhood education shows promise as an intervention. However, to have an impact, this education needs to be accessible and affordable for all, particularly families of color and low income. Societal structures and policies must also better support the positive gains seen through early childhood education to avoid dissipation.

Understudied and underaddressed: Femicide, an extreme form of violence against women and girls.

Little is known about the prevalence and dynamics of femicide, a persistent form of violence against women and girls, due to challenges associated with its documentation. Research by Abrahams and colleagues comparing rates of femicide in South Africa over 18 years, however, suggests that femicide is preventable.

Safer neighborhoods? Violent crime and trauma volume pre/post targeted police interventions in Dallas, Texas.

BACKGROUND: Project Safe Neighborhoods: Dallas (PSND) is part of a national initiative that partners federal, state, and local stakeholders and law enforcement to reduce violent crime, especially firearm violence, in select communities. The authors' hospital is located centrally in PSND's target areas, and the trauma center's service area fully covers the target areas. This cohort study evaluated PSND's effectiveness by examining if PSND's April 2018 launch was associated with decreases in (1) violent crime or (2) the rate of patients presenting with firearm and assaultive injuries. METHODS: Data on violent crime (murder/non-negligent homicide, robbery, and aggravated assault) were obtained from all municipalities in the county for January 2015 - December 2020. Patient volume data were queried from the trauma registry for the same period. Nonlinear spatiotemporal models were used to calculate estimated rates and confidence intervals; derivatives were used to determine periods of significant change. Spatial point pattern tests assessed potential relocation of criminal activity. Given the importance of reducing violent crime, alpha was set at 0.05. RESULTS: The target areas' violent crime rate remained higher than the non-target areas' throughout the study period, and target area violent crime non-significantly increased after PSND's launch. Violent crime in the non-target area increased significantly between February 2018 and February 2019. Part of this increase was attributable to a 7-fold increase (odds ratio [95% confidence interval] = 7.32 [2.58, 30.65], p < 0.001) in one police patrol beat just outside of the target areas. After years of decreases, rates of patients presenting with assaultive injuries or firearm injuries began significantly increasing and nearly doubled within two years of PSND. CONCLUSIONS: Results suggest PSND was ineffective. Criminal activity in the target area was not reduced relative to its pre-intervention levels or relative to the non-target areas. Offenders may have moved outside the target areas to evade increased scrutiny. Additionally, rates of firearm and assaultive injuries increased. As trusted third parties, trauma centers should consider evaluating local crime and injury prevention programs for effectiveness.

Association Between the New York SAFE Act and Firearm Suicide and Homicide: An Analysis of Synthetic Controls, New York State, 1999‒2019.

Objectives. To assess the association between the New York Secure Ammunition and Firearms Enforcement Act (NY SAFE Act) and firearm suicide and homicide rates. Methods. We employed a synthetic controls approach to investigate the impact of the NY SAFE Act on firearm suicide and firearm homicide rates. We collected state-level data on firearm mortality from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) database for the period 1999-2019. We derived statistical inference by using a permutation-based in-place placebo test. Results. The implementation of the NY SAFE Act was associated with a significant reduction in firearm homicide rates, demonstrating a decrease of 63%. This decrease corresponds to an estimated prevention of 1697 deaths between 2013 and 2019. However, there was no association between the NY SAFE Act and firearm suicide rates. Conclusions. As the responsibility for enacting firearm policies increasingly falls on states instead of the federal government, this study provides valuable information that can assist states in making evidence-based decisions regarding the development and implementation of firearm policies that prioritize public safety and aim to prevent firearm-related fatalities. (Am J Public Health. 2023;113(12):1309-1317. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2023.307400).

Firearm Injury Prevention.

Firearms are the leading cause of death for US youth, overtaking motor vehicle collisions in 2020. Approximately 65% are due to homicide, 30% are due to suicide, 3.5% are due to unintentional injuries, 2% are undetermined intent, and 0.5% are from legal interventions. In homes with firearms, the likelihood of unintentional death, suicide, and homicide is three to four times higher than those without firearms. Secure storage of firearms, having them locked, unloaded, and separate from ammunition can prevent unintentional firearm injuries.

Quasi-experimental study finding no localised gun crime or call reduction after gun buybacks in Philadelphia.

INTRODUCTION: Gun buyback programmes have been popular in the USA since the 1970s. Studies show that they have no effect on citywide gun crime rates, but more microlevel examinations around gun buyback locations have not been conducted. This study tests for local effects of 34 Philadelphia, PA buyback events at 30 locations between 2019 and 2021. METHODS: We analysed all gun-related crime events and gun-related calls for service attended by the police from 2019 to 2021. Multilevel models with an autoregressive residual structure were estimated on weekly gun crime and call event intensity (inverse distance weighted) totals across a range of distances (4000-8000 feet). Impacts of a gun buyback event were estimated for 1-4 weeks postevent. RESULTS: Statistically significant weekly increases in gun event intensity are associated with seasonality and after the murder of George Floyd. Gun event intensity was not significantly affected by gun buybacks. Across 20 sensitivity tests of different distances and time periods (4000-8000 feet and between 1 and 4 weeks), gun buybacks were not statistically associated with any localised reduction in the intensity of gun crimes and calls. CONCLUSIONS: Extant research has failed to uncover any effect of gun buybacks on citywide gun crime rates. The current results now contribute a lack of evidence at the local level to this literature. While gun buybacks remain popular with politicians and the public, this study adds to the ongoing question of whether buyback funds could be better spent more effectively.

Reducing cartel recruitment is the only way to lower violence in Mexico.

Mexican cartels lose many members as a result of conflict with other cartels and incarcerations. Yet, despite their losses, cartels manage to increase violence for years. We address this puzzle by leveraging data on homicides, missing persons, and incarcerations in Mexico for the past decade along with information on cartel interactions. We model recruitment, state incapacitation, conflict, and saturation as sources of cartel size variation. Results show that by 2022, cartels counted 160,000 to 185,000 units, becoming one of the country's top employers. Recruiting between 350 and 370 people per week is essential to avoid their collapse because of aggregate losses. Furthermore, we show that increasing incapacitation would increase both homicides and cartel members. Conversely, reducing recruitment could substantially curtail violence and lower cartel size.

Costs of Summer Youth Employment to Prevent Violence: an Analysis and Implementer's Tool.

Gun homicide rates have risen 35% across the USA since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. One promising intervention to prevent violent crime is summer youth employment programs (SYEPs), which provide youth with meaningful workplace experiences, prosocial engagements, and developmental opportunities during the summer months, when many otherwise lack structure. This paper presents a cost analysis of violence prevention-focused SYEPs to help implementers understand the costs generally and in their own community contexts-to advocate for adoption and secure funding of, effectively budget for, and successfully implement SYEPs. Researchers use an ingredient-based costing approach and provide a template for implementers to use and adapt for their context. SYEPs with the goal of reaching youth who are justice-involved or at risk of being victims or perpetrators of violence can cost $3331 per youth assisted, with 54% of this cost directly paid to youth through stipends. Cost per youth is driven by the intensity of the mentoring and support that community organizations provide to the program participants. Knowing the cost per youth assisted can inform further analysis, implementation, and expansion of SYEPs.

Femicide trends at the start of the 21st. century: Prevalence, risk factors and national public health actions.

Lethal violence requires a gender-based analysis which recognises that femicide is different from homicide in many ways. Structural factors such as national income and wealth equality together with government policies may influence the scale of the problem globally. This study is an original attempt to examine associations between femicide rates, these structural factors and national action plans using a longitudinal design. Data from two international surveys were combined to examine anti-femicide actions (n = 133 countries) and temporal femicide prevalence trends (n = 66 countries) in the context of national income and wealth inequality factors. The United Nations Survey of Crime Trends and Operations of Criminal Justice Systems was used to estimate femicide rates per country 2003-2014 and the World Health Organisation Global Status Report on Violence Prevention provided data on policy initiatives in place by 2014. Results indicate that femicide rates decreased by 32% worldwide but increased by 26% in low- and medium-income countries. The structural factors of low income and high inequality were significantly negatively associated with the 2014 femicide rate. Structural factors must be addressed alongside policy and legal initiatives if significant gains are to be made toward eradicating violence against women and girls.

Mitigating Homicide Risk During Pregnancy.

This leading cause of maternal death often involves intimate partners and firearms.

Invited Commentary: Concealed Carrying of Firearms, Public Policy, and Opportunities for Mitigating Harm.

In the last 30 years, 25 US states have relaxed laws regulating the concealed carrying of firearms (concealed-carry weapons (CCW) laws). These changes may have substantial impacts on violent crime. In a recent study, Doucette et al. (Am J Epidemiol. 2023;192(3):342-355) used a synthetic control approach to assess the effects of shifting from more restrictive "may/no-issue" CCW laws to less restrictive "shall-issue" CCW laws on homicides, aggravated assaults, and robberies involving a gun or committed by other means. The study adds to the evidence that more permissive CCW laws have probably increased rates of firearm assault in states adopting these laws. Importantly, this study is the first to identify that specific provisions of shall-issue CCW laws-including denying permits to persons with violent misdemeanor convictions, a history of dangerous behavior, or "questionable character" and live-fire training requirements-may help mitigate harms associated with shall-issue CCW laws. These findings are timely and salient given the recent Supreme Court ruling striking down a defining element of may-issue laws. This thorough study offers actionable results and provides a methodological model for state firearm policy evaluations. Its limitations reflect the needs of the field more broadly: greater focus on racial/ethnic equity and within-state variation, plus strengthening the data infrastructure on firearm violence and crime.

Legal Firearm Sales at State Level and Rates of Violent Crime, Property Crime, and Homicides.

INTRODUCTION: The effects of firearm sales and legislation on crime and violence are intensely debated, with multiple studies yielding differing results. We hypothesized that increased lawful firearm sales would not be associated with the rates of crime and homicide when studied using a robust statistical method. METHODS: National and state rates of crime and homicide during 1999-2015 were obtained from the United States Department of Justice and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. National Instant Criminal Background Check System background checks were used as a surrogate for lawful firearm sales. A general multiple linear regression model using log event rates was used to assess the effect of firearm sales on crime and homicide rates. Additional modeling was then performed on a state basis using an autoregressive correlation structure with generalized estimating equation estimates for standard errors to adjust for the interdependence of variables year to year within a particular state. RESULTS: Nationally, all crime rates except the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention-designated firearm homicides decreased as firearm sales increased over the study period. Using a naive national model, increases in firearm sales were associated with significant decreases in multiple crime categories. However, a more robust analysis using generalized estimating equation estimates on state-level data demonstrated increases in firearms sales were not associated with changes in any crime variables examined. CONCLUSIONS: Robust analysis does not identify an association between increased lawful firearm sales and rates of crime or homicide. Based on this, it is unclear if efforts to limit lawful firearm sales would have any effect on rates of crime, homicide, or injuries from violence committed with firearms.

Association Between Child Access Prevention and State Firearm Laws With Pediatric Firearm-Related Deaths.

INTRODUCTION: We aim to study the association between state child access prevention (CAP) and overall firearm laws with pediatric firearm-related mortality. METHODS: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Web-based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting System was queried for pediatric (aged < 18 y) all-intent (accidental, suicide, and homicide) firearm-related crude death rates (CDRs) among the 50 states from 1999 to 2019. States were into three groups: Always CAP (throughout the 20-year period), Never CAP, and New CAP (enacted CAP during study period). We used the Giffords Law Center Annual Gun Law Scorecard (A, B, C, D, F) to group states into strict (A, B) and lenient (C, D, F) firearm laws. A scatter plot was constructed to display state CDR based on CAP laws by year. The top 10 states by CDR per year were tabulated based on CAP law status. Wilcoxon rank-sum was used to compare CDR between strict and lenient scorecard states in 2019. RESULTS: There were 12 Always CAP, 21 Never CAP, and 17 New CAP states from 1999 to 2019. No states changed from CAP laws to no CAP laws. Never CAP and New CAP states dominated the high outliers in CDR compared to Always CAP. The top 10 states with the highest CDR per year were most commonly Never CAP. Strict firearm laws states had lower median CDR in 2019 than lenient states (0.79 [0-1.67] versus 2.59 [1.66-3.53], P = 0.007). CONCLUSIONS: Stricter overall gun laws are associated with three-fold lower all-intent pediatric firearm-related deaths. For 2 decades, the 10 states with the highest CDR were almost universally those without CAP laws. Our findings support the RAND Gun Policy in America initiative's claims on the importance of CAP laws in reducing suicide, unintentional deaths, and violent crime among children, but more research is needed.

Preventing the most common firearm deaths: Modifiable factors related to firearm suicide.

BACKGROUND: More than 20,000 firearm suicides occur every year in America. Firearm restrictive legislation, firearm access, demographics, behavior, access to care, and socioeconomic metrics have been correlated to firearm suicide rates. Research to date has largely evaluated these contributors singularly. We aimed to evaluate them together as they exist in society. We hypothesized that state firearm laws would be associated with reduced firearm suicide rates. METHODS: We acquired the 2013 to 2016 data for firearm suicide rates from The Centers for Disease Control Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research. Firearm laws were obtained from the State Firearms Law Database. Depression rates and access to care were obtained from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics program. Population demographics, poverty, and access to social support were obtained from the American Community Survey. Firearm access estimates were retrieved from the National Instant Criminal Background Check System. We used a univariate panel linear regression with fixed effect for state and firearm suicide rates as the outcome. We created a final multivariable model to determine the adjusted associations of these factors with firearm suicide rates. RESULTS: In univariate analysis, firearm access, heavy drinking behavior, demographics, and access to care correlated to increased firearm suicide rates. The state proportion identifying as white and the proportion of those in poverty receiving food benefits correlated to decreased firearm suicide rates. In multivariable regression, only heavy drinking (ß, 0.290; 95% confidence interval, 0.092-0.481; P = .004) correlated to firearm suicides rates increases. CONCLUSIONS: During our study, few firearm laws changed. Heavy drinking behavior association with firearm suicide rates suggests an opportunity for interventions exists in the health care setting.